Australia’s general terrorism threat level is PROBABLE — there is a greater than fifty per cent chance of an onshore attack or attack planning in the next twelve months.
The national terrorism threat level is a warning tool to provide government and the public an indication of what ASIO is seeing and anticipates in the near future. The security environment will continue to change in response to issues and events that arise both in Australia and overseas. The government will continue to provide updated advice to the Australian community as these changes occur.
Terrorism – the Australian security environment
Australia’s security landscape has entered a vulnerable period and is being challenged by new threats with concerning trajectories. Our landscape is a reflection of the social and political environment in which we live – social cohesion is lower, and trust in governments and democratic processes globally are eroding.
ASIO is observing the emergence of domestic actors increasingly driven to action by socio-political issues, intersecting with personal grievances. There is an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies. Some actors hold a blend of ideologies, including those that justify acts of violence to influence change.
The rise of individual grievance narratives and how they are expressed, are impacting society’s ability to find common ground. Increasingly it is leading to a normalisation of provocative and inflammatory behaviours contrary to community standards and liberal democratic values. Global events such as the conflict in the Middle-East, have resonated in Australia and will continue to do so.
Terrorism and violent extremism around the world also endure. Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates have demonstrated their capability to conduct large-scale external operations. They are almost certainly building on recent successes to plan and conduct further attacks with an intent to target the West, and would consider Australia a legitimate target.
Social media is a key driver of volatility, acting as a gateway and platform for violent ideologies and global influences to promulgate at volume and scale. The continued adoption and proliferation of, social media will amplify and enable extremist narratives to find new adherents. Younger people are particularly at risk.
The compounding effects of these issues has resulted in a volatile domestic security environment. This environment has the potential for an increase in acts of politically motivated violence, including terrorism, to occur across all ideological spectrums.
What will a terrorist attack look like?
Terrorists seek to generate fear in the community and promote their cause.
Attacks in Australia are likely to be low-cost, using readily available weapons, and simple tactics. Basic weapons, such as knives, vehicles, explosives, and firearms can maximise casualties when combined with simple tactics.
The most likely location for a terrorist attack in Australia is a crowded place, in a major city. Crowded places include shopping centres, transport hubs or other easily accessible locations. How perpetrators identify targets to attack can be driven by the ideology, or grievance of the attacker, and may include symbolic locations such as government buildings, places of worship or specific events.
A terrorist attack is most likely to be conducted by an individual (known as a lone actor) or a small group. These types of attacks are difficult to detect and may occur with little to no warning.
Our response
Governments at every level are working closely with the Australian community to prevent terrorism and violent extremism, combat online violent extremist content and promote early intervention programs. Industry and individuals also have a critical role to play in shaping a secure domestic environment.
It is important for the public to stay aware and to immediately report any suspicious activity to the National Security Hotline by calling 1800 123 400.
Life-threatening situations should be reported to the police by calling triple zero (000).
